IE7’s market share: 60% MAX

As I noted in Asa’s post about IE7 being released, its market share should be interesting to watch; as per Net Applications, Windows XP represents ~85% of desktops. But as per reports which estimate that some 1-in-5 copies of Windows aren’t ‘genuine’ as per MS WGA which is required to install IE7, that means that at a MAXIMUM, IE7 could represent 68% of all browsers until Vista launches.However, even with that same stats page estimating overall Windows usage at ~94%, IE usage is 82%… Because of Firefox :) If we apply their estimate of around one-in-eight using Firefox to the ‘genuine’ Windows users, that drops IE7’s max share to ~60%

And because Vista will likely take a considerable time to really catch on, I imagine IE7’s 60% ceiling won’t be breached for quite some time.

Of course, not everyone applies MS patches immediately anyway, so IE7 might sit for a considerable period of time at less than 50% market share… During this period of instability, I hope to see Firefox dramatically rise in popularity :)


3 Responses to “IE7’s market share: 60% MAX”

  1. Browser Wars II: 5+ years of Data « Limulus Says:

    […] IE7 adoption (plateauing) compared to IE6 adoption (linear) five years ago.  Is this partially the WGA effect I predicted?  Regardless, its bad news for […]

  2. New Stats: Firefox now has plurality there! « Limulus Says:

    […] market share appears to have plateaued at a level below IE6’s, most likely due to the WGA DRM which they have now […]

  3. Microsoft must be hurting for market share: no more WGA for IE7 « Limulus Says:

    […] And with Vista sucking so bad and XP being given a temporary reprieve to make up for it, IE7 would never get above 60% market share as long as it had one hand tied behind its back by […]

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