Oh no. Oh no no no.

I can’t believe it.  Yah, the SNL video about Hillary having no ethical standards was amusing but I didn’t think it could be completely true…

Why is Hillary still in the race when its clear to everyone, even her own aides, that its over in all but name?

Mrs Clinton is also facing a cash crisis: she has now loaned her campaign more than $11 million just to keep it afloat and it has further debts of at least $10 million.

Wouldn’t prolonging the campaign just be a further waste of money?

[Update 5/21: Indeed; the ‘further debts’ has now ballooned to ~$20M]

And then I read this just a few minutes ago:

A little-known provision of a 2002 campaign-finance law cosponsored by McCain prevents candidates who drop out of the race from raising money after the nominating conventions to repay themselves for personal loans. If Clinton fails to come up with the funds by the Democratic convention in August and she fails to gain the nomination, she will be out the $11 million. If she quits before then, she may find it hard to get people to keep giving cash so she can retire her debt.

And it suddenly becomes clear; she’s staying in the race to get people to contribute to her so that she doesn’t lose her $11M…

[Update: Look at the maps from this post showing where Clinton got >65% of a given county’s votes and note where the upcoming West Virginia and Kentucky primaries are; its not a stretch to think that Hillary will get a lot of support there.  She’s going to try and parlay large victories there into campaign fundraising]

never mind that “Bill and Hillary Clinton earned a combined $109 million between 2000 and 2007”  its the principle of the thing: she wants others to pay for her mistake.  Others like this 11-year-old kid who sold his own stuff to raise money for her to be president even though that’s all but impossible now.  Others like the Obama campaign workers who have to endure hideous racism while Hillary stays in the race and tries to attract the support of “working, hard-working Americans, white Americans” who (won’t vote for a black man for president and) will contribute to her campaign; this is worse than plain demagogy, this is a giant scam.  She knows she can’t win, but she wants her money back and she’s willing to pander to the prejudices of others to fleece them out of their cash.  And its hurting Obama’s chances to become president, but she doesn’t care either…

Update:  I can’t think of any other reason unless she is in such an absolute denial of her own imminent failure that she can’t realize what’s going on and won’t until its finally over.  And either way, as unscrupulous crook or delusional thinker, this proves to me that she is not qualified to be president.

Here’s how we can test which it is. If she drops out of the race before the convention (with significant debt remaining to herself) then she’s just in denial right now.  But if she drags this on to the convention (or ends it only when she’s debt free), then its sadly true.

Update 2: Surprise, surprise:

“Hillary Clinton seized on the West Virginia results in an area where she needs particular help: fund-raising. Roughly $20 million in debt despite $11 million in personal loans from Clinton, her campaign sent a text message to supporters’ cellphones less than an hour after the polls closed hailing the victory and urging them to donate at her Web site. A similar pitch arrived by e-mail two minutes later.”

Though the article quotes her as saying in the e-mail:

“With your help, I’m going to carry the energy of tonight’s victory into the next contests in Kentucky and Oregon”

Kentucky sure (see map above; the voting will be very similar to W. Va.), but Oregon is a whole separate matter.  First, consider the racial breakdown:

West Virginia: ~95% white
Kentucky: ~90%
Oregon: ~80%
US as a whole: ~65%

Second, consider per capita income:

US avg ~$21.5K
Oregon (23rd) ~$21K
Kentucky (40th) ~$18K
W. Va. (49th) ~$16.5K

As a result it might not be too surprising to note that three separate polls in Oregon in the last week have shown Obama at ~55% to 35~45% for Clinton (the rest ‘unsure’).  HRC will lose Oregon and by double digits.  Hopefully then she’ll bow out gracefully, but I won’t hold my breath.

Note: as per Wikipedia, here are the number of pledged delegates from each state:

W. Va.: 28 (20 Clinton; 8 Obama)

Kentucky: 51 (guessing: 34~38 Clinton; 13~17 Obama) [5/20: pretty good guess! CNN says 37:14]
Oregon: 52 (guessing: 22~25 Clinton; 27~30 Obama) [5/22: final results are in and Obama did even better than my max. guess! CNN says 21:31]

Based on my guesses, the Kentucky and Oregon primaries on the 20th will thus give:

56~63 pledged delegates for Clinton and 40~47 for Obama; at MOST, Hillary would have a net gain of 23 delegates that day.  Obama leads her by 154 pledged delegates right now (see small table near the top of the Daily Kos homepage).

Update May 20: “Hillary just threw down the gauntlet in her Kentucky victory speech.  She clearly and unambiguously stated that this battle is going to the convention.”  The author of that post suggests an even more shocking possible motive than financial gain: “It seems clear to me at this point, that she is going to try to divide the Democratic party in an attempt to ensure that McCain wins and she can run again in 2012.”  Insanity! I hope hope hope that she is just delusional and has not decided to go down the ‘If I go down I’m taking you all with me’ road… (note the suggestions of hyper-zealous Hillary supporters on the ‘Hillary is 44‘ website)  I sincerely hope also that she has also not contemplated pulling a Lieberman; going the ‘Independent’ route and getting her name on the ballot alongside McCain and Obama.  I note that like Lieberman getting ‘hacked’, Hillary’s supporters are blaming ‘sexism’ for her downfall; you may read a dissenting view here.

Update May 21: Oregon?  ‘Tis but a scratch for the Clinton campaign! ;)

Update May 24: The map after W. Virginia, Kentucky and Oregon voted; the redder the county, the greater the percentage for Hillary (blue for Obama, green for Edwards):

Compare Hillary’s strong winning area with a map of Appalacia.


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