A brief reply I made to this post which quoted (via an embedded YouTube clip) supposed secret official internal polls as showing McCain way ahead in certain blue states:
“We ARE winning!”
Oh dear; every time I hear that, I remember that this fellow is quoted as having said the same thing.
Take a look at this quote from his Wikipedia article:
“When asked where he had got his information he replied, “authentic sources—many authentic sources”.”
If you want an attempt at neutral treatment of available data, just go to fivethirtyeight.com Note that things have changed a bit in the last month-and-a-half (when Obama was at a six-month low in terms of poll numbers).
On 538 they have NJ/MI/CA as likely to go red as NY/DC/MA. And PA is less likely to go red than *Montana* is likely to go blue.
Also check out the historical info on 270towin.com:
NJ and MI And CA AND PA all last went red in 1988. That was *two decades ago*. So really, think about that for a moment…
Realistically, Obama shouldn’t get less than 300 EV. But let’s be pessimistic for him to start and just give Obama the states that only both Gore and Kerry won; that’s a base of 248 EV. Now, between Gore and Kerry, one of them also carried Iowa, New Mexico and New Hampshire. I think (e.g. based on the 538 blog) that its safe to give those to Obama as well. Suddenly he’s up to 264 EV. That means that he only needs the addition of one of the following states to win: FL,OH,NC,VA,IN,MO,CO whereas McCain needs *ALL* of them (plus NV).
Those aren’t good odds for McCain IMHO.
[update: Wow, it looks like 538 came to the exact same conclusion :]