Most of us have heard the one about the 800-pound gorilla:
Q: “Where does an 800 lb. gorilla sit?”
A: “Anywhere it wants to.”
This translates well to Microsoft; consider their market capitalization as their ‘weight’; at its peak about a decade ago, Microsoft briefly spiked to over $600 Billion. At the time, IBM sat in the 100-150 range and Apple was stuck ~25.
But I’ve been thinking about the long-term trends and they’re not good for Microsoft; they’re currently sitting in the 200+ range, but IBM, Apple and Google are each ~150 right now. Consider this graph (that I made based on the instructions here) which lists the market cap for the first of each month (for less data points ;) starting in 1999, through to Aug. 2009:
At this rate, Microsoft could be worth less than any of those three in the not too distant future…