Archive for the ‘Windows Se7en’ Category

Linux on the cusp of 2010

December 31, 2009

We’re almost at 2010 and so I thought I’d revisit my 2010: The year of the Linux Desktop post. But rather than start with Linux, I want to start with Apple…

I noticed a story “2010: The year of the Mac?” which derisively began “It’s almost a pathetic assertion: This year, the Mac will break out of its ghetto and become a mainstream computer for individuals and businesses alike.” The author doesn’t understand what Apple wants to be (that is to say, what Steve Jobs wants Apple to be ;) I wrote back in late 2007 that “Apple will tend to restrict itself to the mid-to-high-end market”.  And you know what?  Apple won it; they now get 90+% of sales of $1K+ systems; this is where the largest profits are made and Microsoft has effectively been banished from this segment. Apple also has done well with its iPhone and of course its iPods; these are tech products with significant market share that do not run a Microsoft OS and do not necessarily need one to interface either; as Microsoft absolutely requires monopoly conditions to maintain its business, anything that reduces dependence on Microsoft will cause its empire to shrink.  There are now persistent rumors that Apple is going to release some sort of Tablet Machine that will likely sell below $1K; this will further pressure OEMs that currently preload Windows to compete on price…

Which still doesn’t bring me to Linux yet ;) In the refs to the 2010 article I included a letter that I wrote to ESR regarding his predictions about RAM in computers: by 2008, he wrote, we should see 4GB of RAM in “low end” desktop machines and 16 GB in “high end” ones. However, this did not foresee the transition from majority desktop to majority notebook form factor, the current emergence of netbooks, which have begun to displace some notebook sales (see also here) and which tend to have Windows XP preloaded… at least for now; it uses MUCH less RAM than Vista did! ;) Notebooks tend to use less RAM than desktop machines and netbooks less than notebooks; it is still possible to buy a notebook (albeit refurbished) from FutureShop here in Canada with 512 MB of RAM!  Even the average netbook only has 1GB of RAM and low end notebooks typically come with 2, 3 or 4 GB of RAM.  All this has helped drop the price of off-the-shelf notebooks considerably.  Netbooks still tend to be in the $300 range (the same as last year, but with a larger screen and other ‘improvements’; Microsoft has been pushing for this to keep prices artificially high: “What’s the industry’s advantage in saying lets drive this thing to rock bottom…What we are enabling with Windows 7 [is the ability] to try to maintain higher average selling prices…This doesn’t have to be about who can get to $199 first.”)

And this brings us, finally, to Linux. Currently about a third of netbooks are being shipped with Linux globally and this should rise to a majority by 2013. This is the beginning of Linux taking over the low-end of ‘desktop’ (that is, ‘not server’) computing. What I think will happen this coming year is going to be a convergence of technologies that are going to result in that sub-$200 machine, and it won’t have Windows XP or 7 on it.  But unlike the current generation of netbooks that are Intel Atom-based, these will run on ARM processors. Predictions include that 20% of 2010’s netbooks will have ARM processors and the amount will be over half by 2012. And while Google’s Android will be on some of them, Ubuntu stands to grab a large amount of the market with its 10.04 LTS release.

So, will 2010 be the year of ‘desktop’ Linux? I think yes, but in a way that I didn’t quite imagine in 2007. The “major commerical apps designed to run on Linux” aren’t “designed to run on Linux” per se; they’re designed to run in standards-compliant web browsers (e.g. Firefox) and are ‘free’ (gratis) ala Google (mail, maps, news, etc.)  The low-end of computing will be amazingly inexpensive, almost disposable in the new and uncharted sub-$200 range (the “race to the bottom“).  We probably will see lots of Asian OEMs that most in the west have never heard of before cranking these out (perhaps even toy manufacturers; look at this one that uses rechargable AA batteries! :-), while the bigger ones attempt to maintain their Windows-based notebook sales.

An example of what I hope to see for specs on a 2010 Linux netbook:

Ubuntu 10.04 LTS
Pixel Qi Monitor (10″) [read more]
ARM Processor (2 GHz Dual Core)
1 GB RAM (DDR2 or 3)
Fast SSD (8 or 16 GB)
Cost <$200

a backlit keyboard, lots of USB ports and wireless n would be nice too, but those would probably cost extra ;)

Update Jan. 7, 2010: An article mentioning ‘smartbooks’, an intermediate between smartphones and netbooks, and predicting ARM/Linux ones to do well in 2010. But THIS ARTICLE has the real deal; a gorgeous and incredibly thin 12″ ARM “smartbook” which “runs full Ubuntu plenty well”. Look at the pics and watch the video…


Comparing Windows 7 to Linux

September 7, 2009

Slashdot recently featured a post (mirrored here with working images) that shows what Microsoft is telling retail employees to tell customers to get them to not buy Linux netbooks; it’s the usual sleazy marketing FUD we expect from Microsoft.

Tellingly, Microsoft omits any question of cost; while it pushes the point that ‘Macs are more expensive’ in the Win7 vs Mac section of their online training, it never once mentions that Windows based systems are going to be more expensive than Linux ones; and not just for the cost of the OS (and the hardware needed to run it… which is why Windows Vista never made a dent in the netbook market).  You want Microsoft Office? That’s another $100 at least.  Most Linux distros have or some other word processor that saves in an open format preinstalled…

Then there’s the ‘big lie’; “Linux is safer than Windows” is called a “myth”.  I think anyone outside of Redmond can easily laugh that one off.  But more amusingly, they push the fact that Windows has IE8 as some sort of big deal that you’ll be missing if you run Linux! :)  Earth to Microsoft: most people who use IE do so only because it was on their computer when they bought it; most people who actually care about the browser on their system download and run Firefox… which, coincidentally, is what you’ll find on most Linux distros ;)

Microsoft also specifically targets Ubuntu regarding their update process.  I have to say that Microsoft seems to think that the world only wants to run Microsoft apps that can be updated through Windows Update, since my memory of updating other software on my system in Windows is that it was a mess.  Also, Microsoft’s once-a-month Patch Tuesday approach to software updates leaves people vulnerable most of the month; it was designed to cut down on the amount of negative press of patches constantly being released for severe security issues.

Finally, I should mention a sneaky sleight-of-hand Microsoft doesn’t want you to notice: when dissing Linux, they mention “Because there are different ‘flavors’ of Linux, you can’t learn one version and be sure you know them all.” [1] yet at the same time, they say “Most customers have used Windows before.  Windows 7 offers many new features, but it still provides the same great Windows experience they’re familiar with.” What they fail to mention is that most customers have used Windows XP before.  Switching from XP to Vista usually involved a steep learning curve since Microsoft seemed to have made ‘change for change’s sake‘ all over in Vista.  The XP to 7 learning curve should be similar; I seriously question whether it would be easier for XP users to migrate to Vista/7 rather than Mac OS X or Ubuntu.

[1] an aside: all the Linux distros packed onto netbooks these days are GUI-based; how hard is point-and-click?  Also, since Ubuntu is the ‘leader of the pack‘ when it comes to desktop Linux distros, it’s what people are most likely going to run into when they try ‘Linux’…

In short, if you know someone is going to buy a netbook and you know more than they do about computers, go with them and make sure they don’t get suckered into buying a Windows lemon if that’s not what they need.

Lenovo’s Revisionist Netbook History

May 18, 2009

A reply to bug #1:

> im seeing more and more vendors offer systems with ubuntu and other
> linux distros. i agree with bert07 that they are finally starting to see
> the linux community.

Speaking of “vendors” who are “starting to see the linux community”, I note that Lenovo is not one of them:

The other challenge has been, in order to keep the price points down, a lot of people thought that Linux would be the saviour of all of these netbooks.

You know, there were a lot of netbooks loaded with Linux, which saves $50 or $100 or whatever it happens to be, based on Microsoft’s pricing and, again, from an industry standpoint, there were a lot of returns because people didn’t know what to do with it.

Linux, even if you’ve got a great distribution and you can argue which one is better or not, still requires a lot more hands-on than somebody who is using Windows.

So, we’ve seen overwhelmingly people wanting to stay with Windows because it just makes more sense: you just take it out of the box and it’s ready to go.

I’m going to call ‘revisionist history’ on Lenovo BTW; People didn’t want “to stay with Windows”, they wanted to stay with Windows *XP*. Yet at the same time, XP (which is still much more widely used than Vista; e.g. see Net Applicaitons and Stat Counter) had all but gone extinct on regular machines from the big OEMs. Thus there was a high demand for it with low supply. When XP netbooks entered the market at a price point of less than half what Vista notebooks cost, they sold quite well as you might have expected! You’ll note that while there are fewer Linux-based netbooks than XP ones available, you don’t see any in stores with Vista O:) Also it turns out that Microsoft only charged the OEMs $15 per XP Home license on netbooks which explains why they didn’t cost significantly more than the Linux ones. And while MSI apparently had 4x (!) higher return rates on their SUSE systems than they did with those preloaded with XP, Dell’s netbooks shipping with Ubuntu (a full third!) had about the same return rate as those with XP. What this says to me is that MSI didn’t do a good job of picking/testing/tweaking/marketing their distro of choice, while Dell did.

My prediction is that companies which decide to put Windows 7 Starter (limited to 3 concurrent applications… can we say “crippleware”? ;) on netbooks are going to have unhappy customers and low sales, those who continue to preload XP will continue to do well and those that preload Ubuntu will see increasing sales.


Windows Se7en

January 30, 2009

I just realized a way that Microsoft could go a long way towards soothing-over the Vista fiasco, while generating goodwill among Windows users, undermining Linux adoption, making lots of very good press and really not costing Microsoft very much money (seriously, I can’t imagine much more than those terrible ads with Gates and Seinfeld).

But I am *so* confident that it would completely run contrary to the ‘penny-wise but dollar-foolish’ mentality at M$ that they will *never* do it that I will blog the idea right here:

Let legitimate Windows Vista keys work for Windows Seven.

IOW, let Windows Vista users upgrade to Windows Seven for free (gratis).

[Update: It appears that I am not the only one and not the first person to think this either :]

The vast majority of Windows upgrades happen when people buy new computers, NOT from buying an upgrade version; the small drop in profits for lost Vista to Seven boxed upgrades would be more than compensated by increased computer sales.  The buzz already is that Seven is what Vista really should have been; sort of a Windows 98 SE (but compared to ME, not 98 ;)…  Amusingly, read this section of an article about “consumer harm” caused by M$ as a mad-lib:

Windows [VERSION] is already on its “second edition.” To get what are essentially bug fixes, Microsoft charges Windows [VERSION] users $[AMOUNT], for the second edition of the same product. (Creating yet another opportunity to charge consumers more money so its products will function properly).

(VERSION = 98 or Vista? ;)

If M$ did that simple thing, do you doubt that it would have the effects I described in the first part of the post?

Do you doubt that Ballmer & Co. will never do it?

I have to say that the different Windows Se7en DVD versions look pretty… Ultimate is in the middle.