W3Schools: April 2010

An update (last post covered data to the end of 2009) on the browser stats at W3Schools.com

Usual disclaimer: data is just for that site, but they keep old numbers up that show trends VERY well.

Trends:

IE as a whole still is still showing major decline, with IE 6 and 7 gowing downhill at about the same rate.

Opera and Safari are flat at low levels. Firefox is flat at a high level.

Chrome and IE 8 are both rising.

Discussion:

The pool of IE6 users represents XP machines that have not been upgraded.  It cannot realistically grow larger.  People who have not upgraded from IE6 probably never will on their current machines; the decline of IE6 is likely caused by old machines failing and new ones (mostly Win7/IE8) being bought to replace them.

IE8 is thus rising, but I don’t think they are getting almost any converts from non-IE browsers.  Watch for each successive IE release to be weaker than the last.

Chrome is scooping up users left and right.  The net effect is that they are taking away IE market share, but I’m going to speculate that a good number of people are still switching to Firefox, while others switch from Firefox to Chrome, with an overall effect that Firefox is flat.

Microsoft lies to your face about browser security

Microsoft’s Head of Security and Privacy in the UK has told TechRadar that people who jump ship from Internet Explorer after the recent spate of bad headlines risk ending up on a less secure browser. With France and Germany both advising a move away from Internet Explorer, things are far from rosy for Microsoft’s browser […yet] Microsoft’s UK security chief Cliff Evans insists that a non-Microsoft browser is the worse option. “The net effect of switching [from IE] is that you will end up on less secure browser,” insisted Evans. “The risk [over this specific] exploit is minimal compared to Firefox or other competing browsers… you will be opening yourself up to security issues.

Let’s fight FUD with facts…

Vulnerability Report: Mozilla Firefox 3.5.x
Unpatched: 0

Vulnerability Report: Google Chrome 3.x
Unpatched: 0

Vulnerability Report: Opera 10.x
Unpatched: 0

Vulnerability Report: Apple Safari 4.x
Unpatched: 0

Vulnerability Report: Microsoft Internet Explorer 6.x
Unpatched: 24
Most Critical Unpatched: Extremely critical

Vulnerability Report: Microsoft Internet Explorer 7.x
Unpatched: 11
Most Critical Unpatched: Extremely critical

Vulnerability Report: Microsoft Internet Explorer 8.x
Unpatched: 4
Most Critical Unpatched: Extremely critical

My recommendation if you use Windows: make sure the version of IE that’s installed (because you can’t uninstall it!) is the latest/least vulnerable (IE8) and then install at least one of the non-IE browsers listed (personally I always recommend Firefox :) and then use THAT.  Of course, you could always switch to a Mac or Linux…

Related: Internet Explorer – Endless Security Problems

Update Jan. 21:

Firefox released version 3.6!

Microsoft issued an emergency patch to plug the Aurora exploit which they apparently have known about since AUGUST. Here are Secunia’s updated IE numbers:

Vulnerability Report: Microsoft Internet Explorer 6.x
Unpatched: 23
Most Critical Unpatched: Moderately critical

Vulnerability Report: Microsoft Internet Explorer 7.x
Unpatched: 10
Most Critical Unpatched: Moderately critical

Vulnerability Report: Microsoft Internet Explorer 8.x
Unpatched: 3
Most Critical Unpatched: Less critical

W3Schools: 2009 ends with IE down, Firefox flat and Chrome up

Half a year has passed since I last blogged about the browser stats from W3Schools.com (usual disclaimer: they’re just for that site, but they keep old numbers up that show trends VERY well) and the summary is that in the last half of 2009, IE was down, Firefox flat and Chrome up:

The global graph from StatCounter seems to show a similar trend. The ‘flatness’ of Firefox is interesting though; I strongly suspect that it is still getting IE converts, BUT is also losing some users to Chrome. The only version of IE still growing is IE8 and that’s almost flat.

By comparison to Chrome, Opera is flat and Safari has only made minor gains (probably from preloads)

So as we enter 2010, it looks like the browser to watch is Chrome. When Firefox finally releases 3.6, that should help boost its usage.

StatCounter: Firefox 3.5 to become world’s most used browser version imminently

Notice a trend?

Also, with Firefox 3.0 coming to the end of its life at the end of the month, we should see a good spike in 3.5 usage.

July 2009 Browser Stats

I note that NetApplications, W3Counter and StatCounter all have their global July 2009 numbers up, so here’s a table:

	NA	W3C	SC	range

IE8	14.58	12.46	12.65	12-15
IE7	23.09	24.74	27.62	23-28
IE6	27.21	15.21	19.82	15-27
-------------------------------------
all	64.88	52.41	60.09	52-65

FF3.5	4.54	6.56	5.44	4-7
FF3	16.21	23.03	22.93	16-24
FF2	1.45	1.81	1.81	1-2
-------------------------------------
all	22.2	31.4	30.18	22-32

IE+FF	87.08	83.81	90.27	83-91

C2	2.37	3.11	2.85	2-4
S4	2.22	3.11	(<3)	2-4
O9	1.73	1.18	1.86	1-2

One will note that there is quite a bit of difference in the IE:FF ratios; NetApplications has the highest at about 3:1, while W3Counter has the lowest, at about 5:3  Another difference is in which browser version is the most used; NetApplications says IE6, while StatCounter says IE7 and W3Counter has IE7 less than 2% ahead of FF3.  Thus we are reminded that any individual source is not necessarily accurate and will have its particular biases so we should be careful when quoting exact figures; ranges and overall trends would be better.

Update Aug. 7:

W3Schools put up the numbers for their site and the trends are:

IE8 is rising, but not quite as fast as IE7 is falling.

IE6 continues down its path toward extinction.

Firefox and Chrome are still rising, together at about the same rate IE as a whole is falling.

W3Schools June Data

Its been five months since I last reported on the browser share data for W3Schools.com. The first thing that jumped out at me is the rapid growth of Google’s Chrome compared to the slow rise of Safari and plateauing of Opera:

The trend is currently on the order of a percent every two months. And now that it has broken through the 5% mark on W3Schools, I feel that it should be included on the main graph:

Note that the Firefox+IE line has been slipping, but adding Chrome to it keeps it where it was before. We are hopefully now entering a phase where there will be a third major browser; Chrome’s not there yet, but trending in that direction… We’ll have to see some global numbers to be sure its not a North American-specific thing.

Firefox continues to rise and IE continues to fall (note also here). We may notice a slight spike in FF usage in July from the 3.5 release.

IE6 is reaching its ‘long tail’; its almost exactly where IE5 was five years ago… hopefully it will die off faster though >;)

IE8 is rising rapidly, but almost exclusively at the expense of IE7. In fact, it might not be long until IE6 is more popular than IE7 again! (note the last graph here too)

W3Schools January Data

W3Schools.com was very fast in releasing their January 2009 browser data!

Compared to my last update, IE7 has begun to dip again, IE6 is clearly on its way out, IE8 is still embryonic and Firefox is now used more than all IE versions combined! :)

For this month I’ve created a second graph that shows the beginning of a ‘second front’ in this Browser War; FF/Moz began to be tracked at 4% on W3Schools back in Jan. 2003; at least one of the three ‘second tier’ browsers (Chrome, Safari and Opera) will reach that point by the end of 2009 and with any luck, maybe two or even all three :) Any rapid growth among these will almost certainly be at the expense of IE, thus further opening the browser market.

Seven Years of W3Schools.com Browser Data

I just noticed that W3Schools put up their December 2008 browser numbers and that gives us this nice graph:

What’s new since my last update?

IE7 is definitely in a plateau that started in May 2008; during that 8 month period, IE7’s market share on W3Schools has never escaped a one percent range between 26 and 27%; that’s amazingly flat!

IE6 has sunk to sub-20% levels (note also the graph based on NetApplications data).

Firefox has pretty much risen to a level where it equals all IE combined (<2% difference).

IE+FF is still >90%; Chrome+Safari+Opera is still <9% (all of those combined are ~99% of the market).

So what should we expect from the W3Schools numbers by the end of next year?

First, IE6 will probably halve in usage (thus to ~10%).  That will put it where IE5 was at the start of 2005 (read: obsolete).

Firefox will continue its steady rise and probably end 2009 around 55% though possibly higher depending on how well FF 3.1 (and 3.2? :) goes.

Paradoxically, with each new IE browser release, the total IE share will almost certainly drop; IE7 won’t be doing that much better than it is now and IE8 will start the replacement cycle all over again.  As people are forced to confront something new, they will temporarily consider alternatives and some of those people will switch.  The current ‘minor’ browsers (Chrome, Safari and Opera) will each gain some market share, though again, it will be interesting to see if any can break out of the ‘minor leagues’.  Once the already open-source Chrome is truly cross-platform, that may happen (and I would be glad if it does, since monoculture is a BAD thing).

Update: Note this chart of the browsers used on Ars Technica:

“Firefox’s lead remains unmistakable, and the default browsers for Windows and Mac OS still show their presence. Chrome’s lead over Opera is much more significant at Ars—and widening.”

W3Schools October Data

Much thanks again to the maintainers of W3Schools for putting up more browser data for their site; it provides an excellent record of the trends in the second browser wars.  Here’s what’s new since the my last update using the August numbers:

* IE7 took a slight dip in its numbers due to FF3’s release, from which it appears to have basically recovered (but will it just plateau or actually increase its market share again?)

* Google’s Chrome burst onto the scene jumping immediately to 3% on W3S… and then appears to have plateaued.  Now, 3% for a new browser is not shabby by any means; it instantly became the largest of the ‘minor’ browsers, slightly edging out Apple’s Safari.  It remains to be seen however if it can do what Opera and Safari couldn’t (yet anyway), namely break through as a major browser.

* Firefox took a minor hit from Chrome, but is now back on track.

* IE6 took a major hit from Chrome, which appears to have accelerated its demise.

The sky really IS falling for IE7

Last month I noticed something odd going on at W3Schools; IE7 market share on that site actually dropped.  With the release of their August browser stats today, it appears that not only was it not an error, but IE7’s share has further dropped in the last month, with FF picking up most of the difference:

IE5 -0.2%
IE6 -0.8%
IE7 -0.4%
FF +1.1%

I also have corroborating evidence of an IE7 drop/FF3 gain over the last month from another source, Net Applications:

IE6 -0.57%
IE7 -0.31%
FF2 -1.51%
FF3 +2.07%

[update: note that these numbers show roughly the same ratios as the W3Schools ones; that they are proportional is what counts, as they show the trend clearly]

The conclusion that I had previously drawn, that “F3 seems to really be a crowd pleaser”, seems to be the case! :-)

The rate of IE loss/FF gain this month on W3Schools isn’t quite as drastic though (about 2/3 of June to July), which may mean that this effect is slowing, though I feel confident enough to say that IE7 will lose more in the W3Schools September numbers. With IE8 just around the corner (W3Schools will probably replace their IE5 entry with it), I can’t see IE7 ever appreciably increasing its market share; it appears to have crested.

Update:

“Google have announced plans to take on Microsoft and Firefox with their own open-source browser, codenamed Chrome, by releasing a specially drawn comic by Scott McCloud explaining the app.  Based on the existing Webkit rendering engine, Chrome will integrate not only tab-based browsing but Google Gears and a newly integrated search and address system called Omnibox.”

It will be interesting to see:

(1) What open-source license(s) its under
(2a) If it will get significant traction (Opera and Safari, while well known, are each <5%)
(2b) and if it does, if it will eat more into IE or FF.

I think though that if anyone is still in denial that we’re in a browser war right now, that this will open their eyes.